Why I am Reluctant to Support Anna Hazare Today.

(Adapted from a Facebook note that I posted on August 19, 2011)

With millions of Indians supporting Anna Hazare (as per media or FB, at least), is it so difficult for IAC to find one MP who will introduce their version of the Lokpal bill in Parliament and then get a majority of the MPs to vote in favour?

If they can, they should pursue that path. If they cannot, they should continue to protest / debate till they can convince enough MPs. Threatening the Government with deadlines & fasts unto death is excessive and arbitrary. This Government may be discredited, but the institutions of Parliament & Executive needn't be. Also, if the Government / politicians are as bad as we imagine they are, do we think that getting them to agree to the JLP bill will end corruption? If they have delayed the Lokpal for so many years, they can delay effective implementation for a long time to come.

There is no denying that most Indians are fed up of corruption; they are also fed up with lethargy in decision making and reforms. India, in the 21st century, has failed to keep pace with our aspirations and expectations. The middle class that has tasted the benefits of superior economic growth and competitive choice has no patience for poor infrastructure or galloping inflation. This angst requires solutions; it requires leadership. Unfortunately, not one amongst the political class has stood up to be counted. The opposition, in particular, failed miserably to capitalize on a wonderful opportunity to grab the initiative. 

What you have is a motley crowd of activists, NGOs, godmen and others that have captured popular imagination. Ok, so they'll probably win this round. What happens next? We are back to the same old choices. You know what I'd love to see: Anna Hazare and his team should convert IAC into a political party, demand mid-term elections and seek to come to power, if not now, perhaps by 2014. Then, I might vote for IAC - if I agree with their politics and economics. 

A democracy requires politicians; whether they are good ones or bad ones is our choice.

(Disclosure: I disagree that Jan Lokpal Bill is the solution to the corruption problem that we are facing. I strongly believe that reducing government and related controls is the 'cure' to big ticket corruption that has characterized the last decade. For the daily corruption that all of us face, I think that this suggestion from Kaushik Basu is seriously worth evaluating.)

 

PS. I had an interesting discussion with my friend Mohan Kannegal in the comments of my FB note; offered without any further comment.

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About Value Systems and Economic Power

Extract from Thomas Friedman's Op-Ed in New York Times: We're No. 1(1)!
Who will tell the people? China and India have been catching up to America not only via cheap labor and currencies. They are catching us because they now have free markets like we do, education like we do, access to capital and technology like we do, but, most importantly, values like our Greatest Generation had. That is, a willingness to postpone gratification, invest for the future, work harder than the next guy and hold their kids to the highest expectations.

 

In a flat world where everyone has access to everything, values matter more than ever. Right now the Hindus and Confucians have more Protestant ethics than we do, and as long as that is the case we’ll be No. 11!

 

I liked this article that seeks to distinguish the USA of the early 20th century and now, and how India and China, demonstrating the same great values that the earlier USA had, are emerging as major threats to US economic dominance. Thomas Friedman has always been brutally honest with his opinions. Some may disagree with his conclusions (or the approach with which he arrives at them), but there is no denying that Mr. Friedman has admirably managed to simplify and put in context complex macro-economic shifts that we are all part of.

 

The India that he briefly describes in the above op-ed is the India that I have generally known; the India in which most of us grew up in; the India that thankfully still exists in many small towns and villages.

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A common scene in most towns of India - amidst the chaos, institutes of English and Computer education stand out. 

My fear is that India is changing fast. Instant wealth / success and gratification are now more sought after than the rigour of education and hard-work. What was earlier perhaps limited to the glitz capital, Mumbai is now spreading wide across the country, thanks to televised shows and new media.

Will a Times of India op-ed in 2050 lament the loss of Indian values? Maybe these are the cycles of life, the ups and downs in the fortunes of various nations. Or can a nation's leaders and thinkers steer a different course? Governance in India, in the current times, does not give such confidence. We have many strategists; we are missing the leaders. 

Let Neutrality not lead to Mediocrity

Recently, Thomas K Thomas of Hindu Business Line wrote an article regarding the Net Neutrality issue that is being debated in several countries and was introduced into the Broadband debate in India by Google. While TKT was kind enough to quote my views, there's only so much one can express in a quote. Therefore, this post to elaborate on the quote:

But Indian telecom operators are not in favour of any such regulation.  Srinivasa Addepalli, Senior Vice-President, Corporate Strategy, Tata Communication, says that more than it being a question of principles it is a commercial issue. “It is fair that consumers should have unrestricted access to the Internet. It is also a fact that telecom operators are investing billions of dollars in creating infrastructure. The Internet is at the core of private enterprise today; network operators, like the content/service providers, should be allowed to develop their commercial models without additional regulatory constraints,” Addeppali says.
There was a twist in the Net Neutrality debate in the US with Google and Verizon announcing a joint proposal and with AT&T jumping into the fray with its support of said proposal (or at least one key element of the proposal). Proponents of an open Internet accused Google of a sell-out and Google responded with an analysis of myths and facts related to the proposal. (By the way, I liked this reasonably objective teardown of the Google-Verizon proposal).

Whatever the outcome of the current round of debate on Net Neutrality proposals, I guess there are some key issues that one needs to consider here.

Is the Internet a public good or a private enterprise?
What might have started out in defence and academic circles, is now the primary platform for knowledge, collaboration, commerce, entertainment, and more. On one hand you have the largest encyclopedia in the world that is user-managed and runs on donations, and on the other you also have the most valuable brand in the world, both of which owe their existence to the Internet. The late Dewang Mehta of Nasscom once famously included Internet bandwidth as a fundamental right of all (Indian) citizens and rightly so. But it is not just information or governance that the Internet provides us now and nor is the Internet "free". Content providers and commercial enterprises are free however, to charge their customers (or not) for access to their services as they deem fit. There is no regulation that determines how much a song download should cost or what the pricing of a hosting plan should be. You can sign up for a free, 'lite' version or upgrade to a pricey, 'premium' version. It's a competitive market out there, and a reasonably free market.

Is Internet Access a monopoly or a scarce resource?
In the early days of telecom (30 yrs back in developed markets, 5-15 yrs back in several emerging markets), customers had no choice, whether it was voice services or data connectivity. Regulators were introduced in most of these markets to break incumbent monopolies and encourage competition. Even until a few years ago, customers had very few choices for broadband connectivity, one or two service providers at most in any market. But that has changed. Wireless broadband access has emerged as a reasonable alternative to wireline, particularly in developing markets that have had very poor wireline in any case. Most markets have at least three such providers; extreme cases like India have 6-7 (and growing) wireless operators. Of course, these broadband networks (both wireline and wireless) have failed to keep pace with the exponential growth in Internet traffic demand but that does not reflect scarcity or monopoly behaviour. 

Regulators, I believe, should aim to make themselves redundant. That can only happen by encouraging competition, not just in terms of numbers of players, but also ensuring that each of the players has the requisite resources to be an effective competitor. Regulations should define the minimum acceptable performance levels, for customers and competitors; beyond that, effective competition should take care of creating sufficient customer choice.

Broadband Networks: No longer commodity utilities
For long, telecom networks have been called the pipes, equating them with other utilities like water pipelines and electric wires. Broadband networks, as critical to human existence now as the aforementioned utilities, have features that set them apart from the other pipes. For one, as mentioned earlier, they are no longer primarily provided by local or national government bodies and are not monopolies. In addition, the "content" that flows through them is also varied, competitive and unregulated (unlike water or electricity), The highway example is an interesting one, with several similar characteristics to the broadband network. As one of the industry experts in TKT's article says:

It's like any toll road in the country where every type of vehicle gets to use the expressway but the toll charges vary depending on the type of vehicle.

Everyone can use the roads to travel as they please, however, there are several rules that govern how traffic flows on the roads. There are certain roads (highways or expressways) that place limitations on who (or what type of vehicles) enter the road and charge them in a differential manner. Traffic on these roads is regulated in different ways; certain types of vehicles get priority to use fast lanes and some have to stick to the slower ones. On some roads, the authorities may mandate some capacity to be reserved for public transport by creating special bus or taxi lanes, even if it slows down the rest of the traffic. Finally, in specific circumstances, private roads can be built and the owners determine what they are used for and how. What do we gather from this:

A) Rules of what is allowed and what the charges are should be clear to the users (and to the regulators)

B) Differential treatment to users is permitted. In the light of (A), users can choose what they prefer. (By the way, roads are a near monopoly or maybe duopolies; telecom networks, we have established earlier, are more competitive than roads)

C) Certain capacity of the 'public' infrastructure can be reserved or set aside for critical usage or public interest. 

D) Customers can, in certain circumstances, negotiate and build private infrastructure and use it the way they want.

As a Broadband customer, I would be willing to pay a premium for a network that understood my priority applications and provided a superior performance for such core services, even at the expense of other stuff. For instance, I would surely like to access my enterprise applications (Intranet, Mail, etc.) much faster / better than say, a YouTube video. A doctor providing remote medical assistance would surely want her tele-medicine application to not be choked mid-way through the procedure. On the other hand, a movie junkie (perhaps the doctor, on vacation) would want nothing more than super-fast download of the latest iTunes movie (in HD). Should we let this be left to fate (or best effort, in Internet / telecom parlance)? I say, No. Internet service providers need to make their networks more capable, to discriminate intelligently and individually across different types of content / applications. In a world where our lives are going to revolve around the cloud, networks have to become more than dumb pipes. Intelligent networks will create more value to the customers as well as the content providers. 

Maybe most customers do not want such intelligence. Maybe most content providers do not care about it. But for the few that want the choice, let regulation not take it away and relegate them, in the name of neutrality, to an "average" experience.

I welcome your comments and feedback, particularly because the "Net Neutrality" debate is still not defined well enough in developing markets.

2009: Sad Year for Indian Telecom; 2010: Unlikely to be better

I spent the entire Oh-Ohs (00's) decade working on telecom. NTP '99 heralded the real opening up of the Indian telecom sector and every spare hand was diverted to telecom... and boy, has it been an exciting ride! More than 500million subscribers were added during this period; we have seen tariffs hit all-time lows; 8 new submarine cables connected India to the rest of the world... the achievements are endless to recount here.

However, I am saddened by the manner this decade ended. 2009 has to count as the year that promised so much but delivered almost nothing. The most talked about disappointment, of course, was the postponement of the 3G & BWA spectrum auctions. What is more disconcerting was that major decisions that would have created true customer choice - Number Portability, MVNO and Internet Telephony - were put off, on some pretext or the other. Even the one decision (this year) on Calling Cards could not be implemented because the terms and procedures are yet to be finalized.


Most people are happy about the entry of new (mobile) operators and consequent reduction in tariffs. I am not so sure, though. Adding new (facilities-based) players to a reasonably crowded market is not necessarily in the best interest of the industry or the customers. While it does result in some short-term pricing benefits, the common resource used by all of them is scarce spectrum -- the more fragmented it gets, poorer the quality of service. So while we have so-called lowest tariffs, we also have poor service levels. Instead, the Government had the opportunity to introduce new forms of competition (& customer choice) through MVNO and Internet Telephony, but dragged its feet on those decisions.

Telecom policy-making was at its worst this year, with no clarity on who was responsible and in what direction we were headed. What we needed was an NTP 2009; what we got was EGoM meetings and TRAI consultation papers.


2009 saw Bharti losing out an opportunity to become a global leader in the mobile business; in fact, none of the Indian companies could capitalize on the recession (& low valuations) in developed markets to make any large, bold moves/acquisitions. Intense tariff pressures in the domestic market dented their valuations - most analysts reacted with a Sell on the Indian telecom sector, probably for the first time in the last 5-8 years.


Will 2010 be different? I do not see much cause for cheer: the fundamental problem around policy-making is not likely to go away in a hurry. 3G & BWA auctions might happen in early 2010 (only because the Government is counting on the auction money in this financial year!), but networks/services would be available only towards the end of the year, in a limited manner. The camps on both sides of MNP, MVNO and Internet Telephony are strong and therefore, I expect status quo will prevail - for all practical purposes.


It will feel good to be proven wrong.

Politics of States. State of Politics.

So the Government has finally agreed to the formation of Telangana state. Rather, it was forced into submission by a politician who decided to sacrifice his life for the cause.

Does it make sense to have smaller states, maybe city states? Ramesh Srivats has written a very interesting piece and I have commented, largely in agreement.

But the sad part about the decision yesterday was the process that led to it. As ad-hoc and unilateral as ever.

One numbers politician threatens to commit suicide. Everyone watches, waiting to call his bluff. No way, he says, and reaches the edge of the cliff. Centre gulps. High Command weighs political consequences and blinks. Both of them live to fight another day. So this is what democracy is about. 

Of course, the alternative is not a pretty picture too. Creation of a Committee or a Commission, discussing the report a decade later in Parliament, discrediting the people involved, forming a Parliamentary Committee or better still a Joint Parliamentary Committee, discussing the report a couple of years later, discrediting the people involved...... merry go round.

I think I like the suicide err fast unto death approach. Decisions can be taken, either ways, in 12-15 days. Very efficient.

So, if you want your Bangalore city state or Mumbai state, form a party, find a leader who is willing to commit suicide, and attack!

10 years after NTP 99

As I drive on the highway between Bangalore and Mysore two things strike me. I have not lost voice and data connectivity for even a minute since I left Bangalore airport. And every few minutes I can notice a hoarding, banner or display of one or the other telecom brand. In a country where it can take twenty years to build a bridge, the development in the telecom sector is tremendous. Yes, there are still many things that are not correct and the future maybe uncertain but the change it has created - at the grassroots level - should not be under-estimated. 300 million people (at least) are connected in a way they have never been in this country. The freedom movement is the only other thing that comes to mind. Critical observers will say that this happened in spite of the Government, and they would probably be almost correct. The only credit that I would give is for NTP 99 which really opened up the market; that was the first and last pro-active and coordinated policy work.

It is tempting to say that the next decade will be more exciting than the previous one. I really hope that it's true, for the sake of the 800 million others that are waiting to be connected.

Vulgar salaries down down!!!

... or so our politicians would have us believe.

Having imposed cattle class on their ilk, the high-priests of austerity have turned to a new, softer target: executive salaries. Never mind, that in our so-called "liberal" economy, the Government has no locus standi on determining or even influencing salaries in private sector enterprise.

It is the owners of the enterprise, the shareholders who must decide what they want to pay their managers. If they believe that a CEO is worth paying Rs 50 crores, so be it, even though it might be 12,500 times the per capita GDP of India (as TOI informed us recently). Remember, there are many CEOs, including those of blue-chip companies, whose CEOs get paid far less. Far, far less, in fact.

That is the question investors (and perhaps the Government as the regulator) must try and solve. Why can some companies attract CEOs - highly experienced professionals - for a compensation of about Rs 1-5 crores whereas other companies end up paying 10-50 times as much? It is very obvious that owner-CEOs have a significantly higher level of compensation than professional-CEOs. In a large Indian telecom company, the owner Executive Chairman received almost 8 times as much compensation as the professional MD.

Are the public and institutional shareholders exercising any control or influence over executive compensation, particularly when the "executive" is a significant shareholder himself/herself? The blame, if any, must then lie with the "independent" Directors who are letting the promoters decide how much to pay themselves. (Btw, politicians have the same problem: MPs vote for their own salary hikes in Parliament.)

So, Mr. Minister, the answer does not lie in "regulating" executive compensation and/or asking for "restraint". The Government needs to ensure, through regulation and education, that our publicly listed companies behave like public companies, with active public shareholders (represented by strong, knowledgeable and truly independent Directors). We have too many private fiefdoms masquerading as public companies in India.

My encounter with the Babus!

I spent a couple of hours this morning at a Registrar's office in Navi Mumbai getting a document registered. During those two hours, there was no electricity in the area: part of the scheduled 3-4 hour load-shedding that is prevalent across all of urban Maharashtra excl. Mumbai (rural areas have longer power-cuts). Many homes and most businesses "beat" the power-cut by using inverters (a crude way of load-balancing, perhaps!), so they don't really bear the brunt of the heat and humidity.

What shocked me today was the observation that Government offices don't seem to have that benefit. Indeed, there was an inverter in the Registrar's office but only to run the PC and printer that was required for the registration activity. Not a single fan was working on this extremely hot and uncomfortable morning. Yet, the officials were all working, without too much of a complaint about the situation - for it must be a regular thing for them. The small office was crowded with people awaiting their turn, multiple parties signing documents and getting them stamped and so on. The sub-registrar, the boss of the place, sat in the centre of all this activity, with a soft smile on his face as he scrutinized agreements worth millions of rupees or marriages (worth much more!), and signed wherever he needed to. Not once during the two hours did I see him lose his temper or get irritated at anyone/anything. There was no way I could have kept my peace or lasted even a day in such an environment.

However, our public servants work in such an environment. Daily. 

There is a lot that is wrong with the Government and the bureaucracy. Productivity is low, and there's corruption everywhere. But, the next time we sit in our air-conditioned offices (or lounges) and pass remarks about how all these babus are lazy and corrupt, spare a thought for those officers sweating it out in dingy, claustrophobic offices, without some of the basic amenities that we take for granted.

A lot needs to change...